THE THIRD DUBROVNIK CONFERENCE ON TRANSITION ECONOMIES

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"Balance of Payments, Exchange Rate and 
  Competitiveness in Transition Economies"

Organized by National Bank of Croatia
Dubrovnik,
June  25-27, 1997

 



Scientific Committee

Organizing Committee

List of Participants

About the Book

The Book: "Balance of Payments, Exchange Rate and
                  Competitiveness in Transition Economies"
                  by Mario I. Blejer and Marko Skreb

                  Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999

About the Editors







SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

Mr. Marko Skreb - Chairman
National Bank of Croatia

Mr. Pero Jurkovic
National Bank of Croatia

Mr. Robert A. Mundell
Columbia University

Mr. Mario I. Blejer
Hebrew University
            &
International Monetary Fund






ORGANIZING
COMMITTEE

Mr. Marko Skreb - Chairman
Governor
National Bank of Croatia

Ms. Lidija Pleadin - Secretary
Acting Chief of Staff
National Bank of Croatia

Mr. Mario Kastrapeli
Sales Manager
Travel Agency "Atlas"







LIST OF
PARTICIPANTS


  1. Mr. Zoran Anusic, Government of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
  2. Mr. Mate Babic, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
  3. Mr. Mario I. Blejer, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
  4.
Mr. Velimir Bole, Economic Institut of Law Faculty, Ljubljana, Slovenia
  5. Mr. David M. Cheney,
International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
  6. Mr. Warren Coats, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
  7. Mr. Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena, Siena, Italy

 
8.
Mr. Robert A. Feldman, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
  9. Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel, Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
10. Mr. Clemens Grafe, London School of Economics, London, UK
11. Mr. Laszlo Halpern, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
12.
Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
13.
Mr. Arye L. Hillman, Bar Illan University, Tel Aviv, Israel
14. Mr. Andre Icard, BIS, Basle, Switzerland
15. Mr. Pero Jurkovic, Adviser of the President of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
16. Mr. Anton Kovacev, Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Zagreb, Croatia
17. Mr. Evan Kraft, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
18. Mr. Ricardo Lago, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London, UK
19. Mr. Relja Martic, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
20. Mr. Zlatko Matesa,
Government of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
21. Mr. Ronald McKinnon, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
22. Mr. Robert A. Mundell, Columbia University, New York, USA
23. Ms. Piroska M. Nagy, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
24. Ms. Judith Nemenyi, National Bank of Hungary, Budapest, Hungary
25. Mr. Mario Nuti, London Business School, London, UK
26. Mr. Djuro Navro, Parliament of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
27. Mr. Gary O'Callaghan, IMF Representative Office, Zagreb, Croatia
28. Mr. Gur Ofer, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
29. Mr. Edmond Phelps, Columbia University, New York, USA
30. Ms. Lidija Pleadin, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
31. Mr. Nenad Porges, Ministry of Economy, Zagreb, Croatia
32. Mr. Richard Portes, Center for Economic Policy Research, London, UK
33. Mr. Bozo Prka, Ministry of Finance, Zagreb, Croatia
34. Mr. Zdravko Rogic, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
35. Mr. Nouriel Roubini, Leonard N. School of Business, New York, USA
36. Mr. Sandor Sipos, Central and Southern Department, Washington, USA
37. Mr. John Odling - Smee, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
38. Mr. Mladen Stancic, Institute for International Relations, Zagreb, Croatia
39. Mr. Pieter Stek, The World Bank, Washington, USA
40. Mr. Borislav Skegro, Government of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
41. Mr. Marko Skreb, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
42. Mr. Velimir Sonje, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
43. Mr. Vito Tanzi, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
44. Mr. Imre Tarafas, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
45. Ms. Ruzica Vuger, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
46. Mr. Boris Vujcic, National Bank of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
47. Mr. Paul Wachtel, Leonard N. School of Business, New York, USA
48. Mr. Charles Wyplosz, Graduate Institute of Int. Studies, Geneva, Switzerland







About the book

Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies moving from a socialist to a market-based system. The focus is on external sector developments, and the topics deal with balance of payments conditions, exchange rate policies and regimes, international competitiveness, international capital flows, foreign trade, and other matters related to the integration of transition economies into the world economy.

An understanding of the principles involved and of the experiences of both transition and advanced economies during this process is crucial to ensure its ultimate success. Written by internationally-recognized scholars, the chapters cover these issues in a systematic manner. The first section treats current account developments: capital flows, and exchange rate policies in transition countries: the second section deals with specific issues related to international trade: and the final section consists of six specific country experiences, including a chapter discussing the colllapse of the Russian ruble in August 1998.








THE BOOK
: "Balance of Payments, Exchange Rate and
                   Competitiveness in Transition Economies"
                
  by Mario I. Blejer and Marko Skreb

Contents:

I  INTRODUCTION

   
     1. Transition and the Open Economy: An Overview
            
Mario I. Blejer and Marko Skreb

II  EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

    
    2. Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies
           
Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel
        3.
Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Transition Economies
           
Robert A. Mundell
        4.
Toward Virtual Exchange Rate Stability in Western and 
            Eastern Europe with the Advent of EMU
           
Ronald I. McKinnon
        5.
A Model of Real Exchange Rate Determination in Transition Economies
           
Clemens Grafe & Charles Wyplosz
        6.
Financing the Transition to a Market Economy:
            External Borrowing in the Balticís and CIS Region
            John Odling-Smee & Basil Zavoico
        7.
Capital Flows and the Stability of Financial Systems in Emerging Countries
           
Andre Icard

III  TRANSITION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

       
8. Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies
            Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash
        9.
The Fiscal Implications of Trade Liberalization in Transition Countries 
           
Vito Tanzi & Adrienne Cheasty & Kristina Kostial
       10.
What is Special About Endogenous International Trade Policy in Transition Economies?
           
Arye L. Hillman & Heinrich Ursprung

IV  SELECTED COUNTRY EXPERIENCES

    
   11. External Deficit, Exchange Rate and Competitiveness in Croatia: Is there a problem?
            Boris Vujcic & Tomislav Presecan
       12.
Exchange Rate Policy in the Czech Republic:
            The Perils of Sticking to Fixed Exchange Rates
           
Fabrizio Coricelli
       13. Trade, Trade Policy and Foreign Exchange Regime Under Transition:
             Russia and the Dutch Disease
            
Gur Ofer & Vladimir Drebentsov
       14.
Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates and Competitiveness:
             Lessons for Transition Economies from the Israeli Experience
            
Jacob A. Frenkel
       15.
Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates and Competitiveness in Hungary
            
Laszlo Halpern & Judit Nemenyi
       16.
Current Account Surplus and Falling Competitiveness in Slovenia
           
Velimir Bole


Contributors

Nouriel Roubini
, Leonard N. School of Business
Paul Wachtel, Leonard N. School of Business
Robert A. Mundell, Columbia University
Ronald McKinnon, Stanford University
Clemens Grafe, London School of Economics
Charles Wyplosz, Graduate Institute of Int. Studies
John Odling - Smee, International Monetary Fund
Andre Icard, Bank for International Settlements
Oleh Havrylyshyn, International Monetary Fund
Vito Tanzi, International Monetary Fund
Arye L. Hillman, Bar Illan University
Henrich W. Ursprung, University of Konstanz
Boris Vujcic, National Bank of Croatia
Tomislav Presecan, National Bank of Croatia
Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena
Gur Ofer, The Hebrew University
Jacob A. Frenkel, Bank of Israel
Laszlo Halpern, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Judith Nemenyi, National Bank of Hungary
Velimir Bole, Economic Institut of Law Faculty


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